Oil jumps more than $ 4 after the “OPEC +” cuts

Oil prices jumped, Monday, after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC + producers announced a surprise round of production cuts. Brent crude futures jumped $4.30 to $84.19 a barrel, due to the news that it will be reduced by about 1.16 million barrels per day, while US crude rose $4.17 to $79.84. The change comes before a virtual meeting of an OPEC + ministerial committee that includes Saudi Arabia and Russia.

“The participation of the largest members of OPEC + indicates that commitment to production cuts may be stronger than in the past,” said Vivek Dar, an energy analyst at CPA. He added, “This means that the oil markets may witness a contraction of approximately 1% of the global oil supply or more, starting from May.”

The head of the investment company, Pickering Energy Partners, said on Sunday: “The recent cuts may raise oil prices by ten dollars a barrel.”

Goldman Sachs forecast

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude to $95 a barrel by the end of the year and $100 for 2024.

“Today’s abrupt cut is consistent with the new OPEC+ credo to act proactively, because it can without significant losses in market share,” Goldman said. “Although this cut is surprising, it reflects important economic and potential political considerations,” he added.

The rise in energy costs somewhat overshadowed Friday’s slower reading of core inflation in the United States, which saw Wall Street end the month on a strong note.
S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% Monday, while Nasdaq futures lost 0.6%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures fell 0.1%, while FTSE futures rose 0.1%.
The broadest “MSCI” index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 0.4%.
Chinese blue chips rose 0.6%, shying away from the Caixin/S&P survey of manufacturers that showed a surprise drop to 50.0 in March.
Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.3%, although the manufacturers’ survey came in slightly below expectations.
There was better news from the final industrial survey, which improved to 49.2 in March from 47.7 in February, the slowest contraction since November.
Raising Federal Reserve rates

The jolt to inflation expectations sent the 2-year US Treasury yield up 4 basis points to 4.11%, while Fed funds futures trimmed expectations for a rate cut later in the year.
The market raised the probability of a Fed rate hike by a quarter point in May to 61%, from 48% on Friday, and priced in 38 basis points of cuts by the end of the year.
This in turn helped the dollar gain 0.5% against the Japanese yen to 133.44, while the euro fell almost 0.5% to 1.0789 dollars. The rise in oil prices is bad news for the Japanese trade balance, given that it imports most of its energy needs.
The rise in the dollar and yields pushed gold prices down by about 0.9% to $1950 an ounce.
Interest rate expectations in the US may be affected by Jibun Bank of Japan’s ISM and payroll data released this week, although reaction to Friday’s jobs report will be muted by the Easter holiday.
The central banks of Australia and New Zealand hold policy meetings this week, and the latter is expected to rise by another quarter point to 5.0%. (Reuters)