Fitch affirms Abu Dhabi’s credit rating at “AA”

Fitch affirmed the long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi at “AA” while giving it a stable outlook.

The classification granted to Abu Dhabi reflects the high per capita GDP and the strength of its financial and external measures. The agency stated that the emirate’s government debt is among the lowest in the world, while its net foreign sovereign assets are among the highest among countries and regions.

Fitch expects Abu Dhabi to achieve fiscal surpluses of 7.8% of GDP in 2023 and 6.6% in 2024, after achieving a surplus of 14.7% of GDP in 2022. Higher oil revenues will offset increased domestic spending. , which will remain within the target range of the government budget, which ranges between 260 and 300 billion dirhams.

Abu Dhabi will maintain financing surpluses between 2023 and 2025 in excess of 3.5% of GDP, with oil prices gradually declining to $70 per barrel in 2025.
It is expected that oil production in Abu Dhabi will decrease in 2023 to 3 million barrels per day, to rise to 3.2 million barrels per day in 2024, which is close to the quotas set by «OPEC +».
Abu Dhabi plans to increase production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, which could provide a significant increase in revenues if OPEC or Abu Dhabi decide to seek to increase market share rather than support prices.
Oil revenues accounted for an average of 81% of fiscal revenues during the period between 2018 and 2022.